Source: Hindustan Times, Sept 8, 2025

1. Key Arguments

• Decline in fertility: India’s rural fertility rate has fallen to 2.1, reaching the replacement level for the first time. Overall fertility rate has dropped below replacement (1.9).
• Mortality concerns: Despite fertility reduction, high mortality rates—especially due to unknown and respiratory causes—persist.
• Data gaps: Lack of updated Census (delayed from 2021 to 2026) hampers population projections and planning accuracy.
• Uneven trends: Fertility decline is sharper in rural areas, while challenges remain in mortality control and urban-rural disparities.

2. Author’s Stance

• The tone is informative and cautiously optimistic.
• While acknowledging the demographic milestone, the author stresses caution due to persisting high mortality and data reliability issues.

3. Biases Present

• Pro-Government leaning: The article foregrounds government announcements and achievements without critically interrogating policy failures in health and census delay.
• Data-centric bias: Heavy reliance on Sample Registration System (SRS) figures; limitations of the methodology (family reports, incomplete medical records) are mentioned but underexplored.

4. Pros and Cons

Pros

• Demographic dividend potential: Replacement-level fertility indicates stabilization of population growth.
• Rural progress: Counters stereotype of high rural fertility, suggesting improved access to health services and awareness.
• Gender and development link: Lower fertility often correlates with better maternal health, education, and women’s empowerment.

Cons

• Health system gaps: Persistent high mortality undermines demographic gains.
• Data deficit: Postponement of Census creates uncertainty in welfare targeting, migration studies, and policy formulation.
• Regional disparity risk: National averages may mask high fertility in certain states (e.g., Bihar, UP).
• Ageing challenge: Declining fertility without parallel health and pension reforms may accelerate ageing burden.

5. Policy Implications

• Health Policy (GS II): Need for stronger disease surveillance, cause-of-death data, and universal healthcare access.
• Population Policy (GS I): India may enter “below-replacement fertility” phase, requiring policies to address shrinking workforce and ageing.
• Economic Policy (GS III): Labor force participation, skill development, and pension reforms become critical.
• Governance: Census delay affects evidence-based policymaking, weakening SDG tracking and welfare schemes.

6. Real-World Impact

• Short-term: Lower fertility may ease population pressure on resources, housing, and jobs.
• Medium-term: Risk of “premature ageing” before India becomes high-income, similar to East Asian economies.
• Long-term: Urbanization and migration patterns may accelerate, requiring rethinking of rural development strategies.

7. Relevance to UPSC GS Papers

• GS I (Society, Demography): Fertility transition, demographic dividend, ageing.
• GS II (Governance, Health): Role of Census, healthcare challenges, mortality data.
• GS III (Economy, Development): Labor market, skill development, welfare economics.
• Essay / Ethics: Balancing population stabilization with social justice and intergenerational equity.

8. Balanced Summary & Future Perspectives

The decline in rural fertility to replacement levels marks a demographic landmark for India, signaling improved health awareness and access to family planning. However, celebrations are premature given persistent high mortality, unreliable data, and delayed Census.

Future outlook:

• Strengthening health infrastructure, mortality tracking, and census operations is essential.
• India must prepare for ageing, shrinking workforce, and regional fertility disparities.
• Policy should shift from population control to population quality—investing in health, education, and skill-building to leverage the demographic dividend before it wanes.